By Johnson Frederick on March 12th, 2181
This is Johnson Frederick with the latest results of the SevCol-requested and financed study into the possible effects on the economy and living conditions on Mars, in the event of roughly half the population no longer following the Mars’ computers directives.
As you are all no doubt aware, that is one of the likely scenarios as a result of the current disagreements on Mars. Some specialists argued that there would be negligible effect, as experienced individuals would continue to do the job and do what’s needed. Other experts pointed to the delicate balance of each individual dome, and the even more fragile ecosystem of all domes combined. Coupled with time-critical and for humans, hard to predict but required actions, these experts predicted a partial or complete collapse of the economy and possibly even society on Mars.
With predictions amongst experts varying so wildly, the world of predictive experts was shocked roughly a week ago, when Jeans James, a PhD at Luna university, presented a paper with the results of adapting his predictive model for bacteria growth in semi-joined vessels, to the situation in Mars. This model was unique, in that none of the experts at the time could find a fault with its method. Hence, the results were of special interest, but mister Jeans, upon the request of SevCol, postponed the results of his findings. SevCol requested this due to the volatile nature of the current situation, and promised to spare no effort in going over this model and improving upon it, letting the Census Bureau work alongside mister James, throughout the week.
Some have reported that work on the model has been going on for 24 hours a day for the last six days, with many of the mathematicians and statisticians working well into the night, working in shifts, and running the simulation on well over a thousand computers at once.
The results of these simulations have now been published, with the caveat that peer review is currently ongoing.
The results of the preliminary, limited model of Jeans James predicted a partial societal collapse, with an almost complete collapse of the economy, and a partial collapse of society. Recovery of the society would take 20 years +/- 15 years, and the economic recovery would take 30 years +/- 40 years. This result was interesting, but as you can see, the uncertainty of the results were rather high.
The improved model came up with somewhat more precise results, as well as separate results for each of the Mars’ domes. The results for each dome will be published after more model and peer review, as the results have a lower certainty, but the overall results were estimated to be ready for public consumption.
The Census James’ Model for Mars’ Running With 50% Separated From The Mars Computer (name still being workshopped) estimates that the impact on the Mars’ domes will be severe. It shows an almost immediate decrease in efficiency in all of the domes, leading to a decrease in production, leading to a sharp decline in economic power for all of the domes. THis decrease in efficiency could be brought back to roughly 85% of current in 5 to 10 years, assuming competent leadership. This is for the domes choosing to go independent of the Mars’ Computer. The domes trying to follow the directives of this computer are far worse off, with a recovery time estimated to be well over 40 years if they continue to follow the computers’ directives.
The effects of the increase in weird directives from the computer has so far not been studied, but a preliminary probe by the Census Bureau into the possible effects have shown that although the effects of these weird directives are currently likely negligible, the amount of directives is experiencing a steady growth. If they start to interfere or replace the ‘ useful’ directives, this could well start leading to a measurable decrease in efficiency.
SevCol has so far declined to comment, stating that these results bear careful consideration, and that an official statement from SevCol will follow in a day or two.
Lastly, due to popular request, the Census Bureau has created a process for the Mars’ domes to request and receive the predicted effects for their dome, as long as a contract is signed, stating the knowledge of the receiver of the inherent uncertainties of such a model on such a reduced scale.